Tuesday, March 06, 2007

THE PRESIDENT'S CORNER #9

MORE BORING STATISTICS? Not this week. Although it’s instructive to see what the real estate market is doing across the state and the nation, the point that I made at the end of last week’s column still stands: “All real estate is local.”

The Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah, painted an interesting picture of the state of the U.S. real estate market at recent meetings in Chicago and New Orleans. His main point? “All real estate is local.”

In other words, real estate markets differ according to location. Lereah announced that both coasts are currently experiencing a contracting market that’s more severe than in other areas of the nation. That’s a consequence of the dramatic uptick in property values both coasts have enjoyed in recent years. Lereah noted that even in today’s soft real estate market, nearly 40 percent of the nation’s real estate markets are NOT contracting, but expanding!

THERE’S AN OLD ANALOGY that may be worth repeating here: “If I have one foot in boiling water and the other in ice water, on an average, I’m comfortable.” If 60 percent of the nation’s real estate markets are contracting and 40 percent of the markets are expanding, the average of those two conditions tells me absolutely nothing about any specific real estate market.

THE LOCAL PICTURE is very bright, if you look far enough into the future. Demographers predict that our Central Valley will see a surge in population in the years to come. One more reason to buy as much local real estate as you can handle IF you have the time to wait for the demand to once again outstrip the supply. Wise investors recognize the opportunity. As Will Rogers was fond of saying, “Buy land. They ain’t makin’ any more of it.”

IN SOME BAY AREA real estate markets, Realtors complain about the lack of inventory. This is another example of the “All real estate is local” axiom. A few paragraphs back, I quoted Lereah as saying “both coasts” are experiencing a contracting market, but in some communities near the coasts, the opposite is true. Go figure.

THE LODI AREA continues to be an attractive place to live and work. The long-term real estate investment opportunities are enormous. If you’re looking for the very best long-term investment, talk to your CPA about real estate. Then talk to a local Realtor who can help you plan your strategy. Most people seriously overestimate what they can accomplish in one year…and seriously UNDERestimate what they can do in ten years. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” The time to get moving is now. Happy investing!

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