March 24th, 2007

“THERE IS NO CURE for birth and death save to enjoy the interval.” George Santanaya said that. I’m not sure I agree with ALL of George’s observations, but this one makes sense! Of course, as a Christ-follower, I consider Him the “cure for death” (Easter is April 8! Check it out!), but I’m all for enjoying the trip between birth and death!

CORRECTION: That close-in country homesite I mentioned last week, the one with the walnut orchard and 1.66 acres of country solitude, is listed at $319,950! This parcel is a half-mile or so east of Highway 99 on the south side of Acampo Road. It’s a beauty!

MANY PEOPLE who have purchased five-acre (or larger) parcels WISH they had bought a smaller piece! The above property has it all: A manageable size, loads of ambiance, and a great location five minutes from Lodi! Just drive east on Acampo Road (It’s a pretty drive even if you’re not in the market), and keep your eye out to the south side of the road. You’ll see two For Sale signs side by side identifying two similar parcels, both in walnuts. Mine is the one with the Statesman Realty sign! (Duh).

NATIONAL SPEAKER Rita Perez tells of her husband’s oft-repeated adage, “Don’t sweat the small stuff.” She says it’s his standard answer to almost any situation. One day, Rita was fed up. She asked her husband, “Okay. You always tell me not to sweat the small stuff. So what’s BIG stuff?” Her husband said, “You’re born, that’s big stuff. You die, that’s big stuff. Everything else? Small stuff.” I think that’s when she slugged him.

I HAVEN’T MENTIONED 19328 Page Court lately, partly because I expected it to be SOLD by now! This one is special. Nestled in a Windwood cul-de-sac, it’s larger (2400-plus square feet) than it appears from the street. My Sellers say they’ve put over $200,000 into improvements in the five years they’ve lived here, and I believe them! I have TWO PAGES of upgrades and special features, if you’re interested. This home delivers more than any new home you could buy. The Sellers weren’t planning on moving for a long time! Plans change, and this could be the home you’ve been seeking! $725,000.

LOTS OF INTEREST in 123 East Walnut, that barely-eastside six-plex listed at $699,950. I have several investors considering this property, but as of now it’s still very much for sale!

CONGRATULATIONS to longtime Lodi police officer Ernie Nies on his retirement from the force. I’ve had the pleasure of serving quite a few lawmen and women over the years, including Ernie and his wife Debbie. People in that profession (and their spouses) don’t get enough credit for what they do! I know I speak for thousands of Lodians when I say, “You are appreciated.”

Have a great week! See you next time.

PRESIDENT'S CORNER #11

Real estate outlook improves

Talk to three different people and you’ll get three different answers regarding the local real estate market. One thing virtually all experts agree on: The long-term prospects for our Valley are GREAT! The short-term picture? Opinions differ. The following is an excerpt from a news story written by Sanford Hax of the Fresno Bee. Bear in mind that the writer’s perspective is Fresno-centric, but much of the information applies equally to our little corner of San Joaquin County:

Low interest rates, a growing population, relatively low prices and an abundance of land will help make the central San Joaquin Valley a desirable real estate market in 2007, a panel of forecasters said Thursday.
Experts representing various real estate segments presented their views to about 600 people at an annual forecast sponsored by the Economic Development Corp. serving Fresno County.
The weakest sector appears to be residential real estate, where the latter half of 2006 brought sharply reduced sales and lower prices.
What 2007 brings remains to be seen. DataQuick Information Systems released figures Thursday that showed sales and median prices of new and existing houses slipping in February from January. But Leonard said real estate agents are reporting more traffic at open houses and that more homes are entering escrow.
Leonard's prediction: a boost in transactions of 6% to 9% this year, with prices staying stable because a large supply of houses for sale will keep a lid on appreciation.
Meanwhile, home builders finally are starting to see some hopeful signs after months of soft sales and excess inventory.
"The bottom of the decline in new-home construction has been reached," said Michael Prandini, president and chief executive of the Building Industry Association of the San Joaquin Valley.
Builders are reporting more people visiting model centers, shrinking supply of unsold houses, lower land prices and interest rates and prices that have stabilized.
The commercial real estate sectors appear to be stronger and continuing with little change from 2006. The repositioning of Rite Aid, Walgreens, Longs and CVS in the highly competitive drugstore wars will continue as they add sites in the Valley, predicted Jack Messina, a senior vice president at Colliers Tingey International.
Target, Orchard Supply Hardware and Lowe's will add stores in the Valley, while more national tenants such as Cabela's, Staples and Dillard's will sniff around, looking for sites, he said.
Office buildings also will continue to be in demand, predicted Brian Decker of Colliers Tingey. Office buildings will be constructed at or near River Park and Palm Bluffs Corporate Center, but the vacancy rate will still remain fairly low compared with competing cities.
Mike Harter of Grubb&Ellis/Pearson Commercial said the number of apartment deals will decline, but rents will climb modestly.
"It's the end of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride," he said of the recent real estate market. "Sanity is being restored."
He said buyers and lenders will be more conservative and added, "Real estate will have to compete for the investment dollar."
My personal observation is that our local residential real estate market appears to be stabilizing, although list prices must be right or Buyers will pass you by. The sheer number of homes on the market means that proper pricing is critical. In other words, welcome to a more “normal” real estate market.

March 18th, 2007

SPRING! That time of year when dandelions and For Sale signs sprout in front lawns across the land. Don’t let anyone tell you the real estate market has tanked. The market HAS changed dramatically, but folks go right on buying and selling and moving in and moving out and moving on. Life goes on!

CONGRATULATIONS to David and Sue Kyes on their successful purchase of the home of their dreams! This is one excited family. A Thank You also to Realtor Denise Forsyth, who represented the Seller in this adventure. Thanks, Denise.

And while we’re at it, Thanks to Wesley Rice of First Horizon Home Loans, whom I called in when David and Sue first began to look for a home. As usual, Wes made the financial end of the transaction a smooth and pleasant ride. He got them into a great VA loan! Lastly: Thanks to my right-hand Broker Associate Greg Adams for his work in keeping all the many details on track. What a team we all make! With Wes and Greg in the mix, my escrows are almost boring! Boring is a GOOD thing in this bizness. Happy beginnings all around.

COMING SOON to this space: A great opportunity to own a close-in 1.7 acre homesite for only $320,000! Enjoy your own orchard! Carve out enough space to build your dream home. Only five minutes from Lodi. Natural gas runs along the property line! (That’s rare in the country). Interested? Call me for details, or if you’re working with a Realtor already, have THEM call me!

REDUCED! That charmingly-updated upstairs condo at 700 McCoy Court Number 18 is now priced at $164,950! One-car garage near the foot of the stairs! Updated kitchen! Near-new carpet and vinyl flooring! More! At this low price, someone’s bound to move quickly. Call for a private showing.

FURTHER CONGRATULATIONS are due to Jack and Barbara Chandler on the successful SALE of their Lodi property. Referred to me by Lodi investment advisor Tom Burns, the Chandlers were a pleasure to represent. I want to thank Lodi Realtor Steve Jarrett for serving his Buyer clients well in this transaction Thanks, Steve! And of course, Greg Adams was instrumental once again in making the escrow run on all cylinders.

PRICES ARE SOFT, interest rates remain low. Anyone who recognizes the strategic importance of this fleeting period is BUYING! Most folks will stay on the sidelines until prices start to rise…

MORE EXCELLENT LISTINGS COMING SOON! Watch this space for details. I wish you a wonderful Spring week! See you next Sat.

THE PRESIDENT'S CORNER #10

THE REAL WORLD: So-called “reality” TV shows and other first-person accounts often make the home-selling or home-buying experience look far different than what it really is. A pet peeve of mine is that many of the alleged Realtors portrayed on these shows and in print make most real estate professionals cringe! The bad examples run from unprofessional behavior to actions that could result in the loss of the Realtor’s license to practice the profession. I guess the message of this week’s column is, Don’t judge Realtors by what you see on the tube or read in someone’s horror story!

THE NUMBERS are still on the way up…but not for long. As of this writing, one in every 54 California adults is the proud possessor of a real estate license. Statewide, the number topped the half-million mark in 2006, and it’s still climbing. Historically, it takes two to three years AFTER a real estate market downturn for people to get that blinding flash of the obvious: This is a tough way to make a living! Then the numbers begin to fall.

THE EIGHTY-TWENTY RULE: You’re probably familiar with the old adage that in most sales organizations eighty percent of the business is generated by twenty percent of the people. In residential real estate sales, the numbers are even more dramatic: NINETY percent of the business is done by less than TEN percent of licensees. This is largely due to the fact that many who hold licenses don’t actually practice the profession. Most of those who do, and have success doing it, are true professionals and worthy of trust and respect.

THE WORD “REALTOR” doesn’t refer to just anybody who passed the state test and obtained a license. Realtors are members of the National Association of Realtors (and the California Association of Realtors, if they practice in this state). Of the five-hundred-thousand-plus licensees in California, less than two-hundred thousand are Realtors. Realtors are held to a much higher standard of conduct than licensees. The Realtors’ Code of Ethics was outlined in this space over several weeks last year by 2006 Lodi Association President Paul Mertz. If you followed Paul’s explanation of the Code, you know that it pays to be represented by a Realtor.

California is the most litigious state in the nation. On top of all of the other duties and responsibilities that come with the job, California Realtors are tasked with keeping their clients (and themselves) out of court by writing clear, tight contracts. Communication is the key to happy clients and long-term success in this business.

While we’re on the subject of Realtors, please indulge me as I address one last pet peeve: There is NO “i” in the word “Realtor”! Most people say, “REAL-tor” (the correct pronunciation). But some folks, even some Realtors, say “REAL-i-tor” or “REAL-i-tee”. I’m part of a campaign to rescue people from this misconception. Thanks for staying with me to the end. Now that I’ve gotten that off of my chest, I feel much better. The bottom line: When you need professional representation, call a California Realtor!

March 11, 2007

THE FIRST MOSQUITO OF SPRING settled on my arm as I basked in the afternoon sun last Sunday. One swat and he was dispatched. (Trivia Question: What’s the last thing that goes through a mosquito’s mind when he hits your windshield? Answer: His rear end).

INVESTORS: 123 East Walnut Street, at the corner of Walnut and Stockton Streets across from Smart & Final, is arguably the cleanest apartment complex you’ll ever see. Six well-kept units, each with two bedrooms and one bath. Great cash flow! Solid tenants! Owned by a painting contractor. These apartments are in demand. We’ve received several offers, but as of this moment the property is very much for sale. Call me for further details or to arrange a private showing. Since showings are an inconvenience to the tenants, my Sellers request only qualified serious Buyers. Price? $699,950.

SPRING AHEAD TONIGHT! To clarify, I’m referring to setting your clocks forward. Don’t forget. Set those clocks so you won’t show up an hour late for church in the morning! The State of Hawaii doesn’t do Daylight Savings Time. Consequently, sometimes you’re TWO hours earlier there than here, and some times of year you’re THREE hours earlier. Confusing. But hey. If you’re in Hawaii, it don’t matter, Brah! Even jet lag is more fun in Hawaii.

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS! Own your own office building! Excellent downtown location (corner of South Lee and Lodi Avenue)! Formerly used as dentist’s office and as loan company location. Six private offices, reception area, two bathrooms, kitchen area. Private lender may allow assumption of existing loan. New carpet! Recent interior paint! Call Statesman Realty’s Richard Mahoney (listing agent) at 642-0532 or visit his Open House today from 12 to 2 p.m.! 321 West Lodi Avenue is listed at $385,000.

REAL ESTATE, THE BEST INVESTMENT: Someone once said, “Never ask a barber if you need a haircut.” Obviously, a column written by a real estate broker could be expected to be bullish on real estate (no bull). However, like the Hair Club For Men spokesman, I don’t just sell real estate, I’m a customer myself! (NOTof the Hair Club…too late for that. I’m talkin’ real estate). Most veteran Realtors I know are also serious real estate investors. Even a slow learner like me can figure it out after a couple of decades of helping other people build fortunes. How about you? To paraphrase Ben Stein, the most important thing you can do for your future is to decide what you want to do. Where do YOU want to be financially in ten years? Real estate can take you there.

THANK YOU to all who have congratulated me (and Julie) on the arrival of our very first grandbaby! Winnie (Winifred Jane Wieland) just gets prettier with each passing day. Have a great week! See you next Sat.

THE PRESIDENT'S CORNER #9

MORE BORING STATISTICS? Not this week. Although it’s instructive to see what the real estate market is doing across the state and the nation, the point that I made at the end of last week’s column still stands: “All real estate is local.”

The Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, David Lereah, painted an interesting picture of the state of the U.S. real estate market at recent meetings in Chicago and New Orleans. His main point? “All real estate is local.”

In other words, real estate markets differ according to location. Lereah announced that both coasts are currently experiencing a contracting market that’s more severe than in other areas of the nation. That’s a consequence of the dramatic uptick in property values both coasts have enjoyed in recent years. Lereah noted that even in today’s soft real estate market, nearly 40 percent of the nation’s real estate markets are NOT contracting, but expanding!

THERE’S AN OLD ANALOGY that may be worth repeating here: “If I have one foot in boiling water and the other in ice water, on an average, I’m comfortable.” If 60 percent of the nation’s real estate markets are contracting and 40 percent of the markets are expanding, the average of those two conditions tells me absolutely nothing about any specific real estate market.

THE LOCAL PICTURE is very bright, if you look far enough into the future. Demographers predict that our Central Valley will see a surge in population in the years to come. One more reason to buy as much local real estate as you can handle IF you have the time to wait for the demand to once again outstrip the supply. Wise investors recognize the opportunity. As Will Rogers was fond of saying, “Buy land. They ain’t makin’ any more of it.”

IN SOME BAY AREA real estate markets, Realtors complain about the lack of inventory. This is another example of the “All real estate is local” axiom. A few paragraphs back, I quoted Lereah as saying “both coasts” are experiencing a contracting market, but in some communities near the coasts, the opposite is true. Go figure.

THE LODI AREA continues to be an attractive place to live and work. The long-term real estate investment opportunities are enormous. If you’re looking for the very best long-term investment, talk to your CPA about real estate. Then talk to a local Realtor who can help you plan your strategy. Most people seriously overestimate what they can accomplish in one year…and seriously UNDERestimate what they can do in ten years. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” The time to get moving is now. Happy investing!

March 3, 2007

“ALL IS PERSPECTIVE. To a worm, digging in the ground is more relaxing than going fishing.”
-Clyde Abel

Well said, Clyde. It’s true. Most of the worms I’ve taken fishing have been reluctant at best. They would have preferred to stay home.

CONGRATULATIONS to Jim and Annette Murdaca on the successful SALE of their Lodi property! Now it’s time to celebrate at…where else? Pietro’s. I can’t get enough of that good food! A Thank You to veteran Lodi Realtor Myrna Carter for her job as Buyers’ representative in this adventure. Thanks, Myrna!

TRIPLE WHAMMY! Statesman’s Greg Adams closed THREE “sides” in one day last week! Happy clients all around. Way to go, Greg! Greg’s on track for a great year (and as my Transaction Coordinator and all-around support person, he’s helping MY 2007 to be my BEST YEAR YET!). Greg’s also my Grandpa Mentor. He shows me how it’s done. With NINE grandkids, he’s way out in front!

WINDWOOD CHARMER: 19328 Page Court has so many extras I can’t name them all here! You’ll just have to see for yourself if you’re interested. Over 2400 square feet of lovingly upgraded home on a landscaped cul-de-sac lot! Pool! Spa! Thousands of dollars in upgrades! $725,000.

CONGRATULATIONS ALSO to Kristine Leach (again). This time, it’s for the PURCHASE of her Lodi home! We closed on her Stockton home on the last day of January. I negotiated a Seller rent-back for her so she could stay in her Stockton home until the Lodi home was ready to close. We closed on the last day of February. Feeling strong? She’s moving in TODAY! Feel free to go and give her and her friends a hand. Thank You to Realtor Ray Zvirbulis (these Irish names are hard to pronounce), Sellers’ rep on this deal. Great job, Ray! Ray’s Sellers have moved to Arkansas to raise horses. Sounds good to me!

DOUBLE WHAMMY! Statesman’s own Pat Piccardo closed TWO sales (two duplexes) on the same day this past week! He’s on schedule to reach his 2007 goals (great job!).

TO READ OLD COLUMNS, the occasional tall tale, and assorted other items of interest, visit my blog at TheRealEstateStory.blogspot.com. I try to keep it interesting!

MY OREGON FRIENDS Jim and Sheila Reynolds entrusted the sale of their family home in Lodi to me. This was especially meaningful to me because Jim is Managing Broker for an office of forty-plus Realtors! Thanks, folks! (We closed escrow this past week). Thanks also to Realtor Tami Tuel, who brought the Buyer to this transaction. Good job, Tami!

“THE BEST THING ABOUT THE FUTURE is that it only comes one day at a time.”…Abraham Lincoln. Until we meet again, have a great week! One day at a time.

THE PRESIDENTS'S CORNER #8

C.A.R. reports sales decrease 12.6 percent in January, median price of a home in California at $559,640, up 1.9 percent from year ago

LOS ANGELES (Feb. 27) – Home sales decreased 12.6 percent in January in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home increased 1.9 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today. Here are some bullet points:
· After holding steady at 445-450,000 units on a seasonally adjusted basis from July through December 2006, seasonally adjusted sales declines slightly in January 2007 to 437,580 homes.
· Sales fell 12.6 percent year-to-year in January, the smallest year-to-year decline in more than a year and about one-third smaller than the year-to-year declines of a year ago. Sales declined 3.2 percent compared to December 2006.
· Across counties and regions, raw sales (not seasonally adjusted) generally fell month-to-month by an average of 27 percent, reflecting the seasonal nature of the market. It is common for sales to drop by large margins from December to January. January and February are typically the weakest months for home sales, each accounting for about 6 percent of annual sales.
· The statewide median fell slightly month-to-month in January to $559,640, but continued to climb in year-over-year terms with a 1.9 percent increase from $549,460 a year ago. The median fell 1.7 percent from the December median of $569,560.
· The median price has shown little upward movement since August 2005, when the median was $567,320, and has fluctuated in the range of $550,000 to $576,000 since March 2006.
· Across the regions of the state, all but three regions (Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area, Riverside/San Bernardino) posted a year-to-year percent decline in January 2007. Regional prices averaged about a 2 to 2.5 percent decline year-to-year, with a more mixed month-to-month picture of small increases and decreases. Prices continued to be weakest in areas that experienced significant home building activity in the recent past and/or were popular for second-home purchases.
· The unsold inventory index jumped to 9.1 months in January after hovering in the range of the long-run average of 7 months since mid-2006. The San Francisco Bay Area continues to see leaner inventory levels (3.9 months) compared to the state as a whole and Southern California (10.4 months) in particular.
· Statewide listings displayed an increase that is characteristic of the start of the year, but remained near their long-run average in January. As such, the increase in unsold inventory from December to January was mainly attributable to a decline in sales rather than an increase in the number of listings.
· Time on the market (TOM) rose to 75 days in January, up slightly from 72.7 days in December. This was the highest January reading since 1996 when the figure was 74 days. TOM generally shows a slight increase through the off-season, mainly from December through February.
· The share of homes on the market 30 days or less held steady at 20 percent. On the other hand, the number of homes on the market 90 days or more has nearly tripled from 15 percent to 40 percent over the past year.

Please bear in mind that ALL REAL ESTATE MARKETS ARE LOCAL! It’s dangerous to apply statewide or national statistics to any particular local market. However, the above data helps you get a glimpse of the bigger picture.